UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Roads55, Aug 29, 2018.

  1. NorthernLights

    NorthernLights Blue Belt

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    And yet you were the only one preaching to us about the false promises of "irish money"! Thank you!

    Just kidding, but seriously...I feel like I've seen a lot of posts from you on this subject now :)
     
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  2. weedreference

    weedreference Green Belt

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    I'm normally looking for both guys having a chance to finish when betting unders, and this is a case of that, but this is also a case where both are damn tough to finish, so I don't think either finishing is a very high %. If Pettis gets finished, there's a good chance it comes after the 2.5 mark, and as far as him finishing Ferg, I trust Ferg's sub defense training at a very sub-centric gym in 10th planet. I expect Pettis to be on the back foot, so it will be tough to land the head kick as well.
     
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  3. weedreference

    weedreference Green Belt

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    I almost never lay juice for an under 1.5, but I'm paying the -150 for the Luque/Turner fight. A lot of times guys come into their short notice debut trying to survive and save face, but I just don't think Turner is that type of guy. This is such a step up that I think he has no choice but to throw caution to the wind.
     
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  4. Wiktoruspro

    Wiktoruspro Green Belt

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    Hey gipsy, I bet him against Holloway last time at dog money so go better back to begging on streets.
     
  5. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    I just did not understand why so many people thought khabib would go the dog. I tried to warn them..
     
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  6. Wiktoruspro

    Wiktoruspro Green Belt

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    Maybe because Russia bet Khabib hard too and thats why the odds didnt change much hehe
     
  7. Mcgregorian

    Mcgregorian Green Belt

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    Cannot wait for this card now. The ME is going to be fascinating. I think Conor will win but i am not over confident. I hope he does but at the same time i have always had respect for Khabib. I just hope it's a great fight. Cannot bet on the ME no matter how well i have done on the others.

    My bets:

    Lentz KO (small)
    Kunitskaya ML (Largest bet of the night)
    Evinger ML
    Turner KO Rd 1 (small)
    S Pettis DEC
    Waterson SUB
    Lewis ML
    OSP ML
    Ferguson DEC

    Thoughts???
     
  8. turbozed

    turbozed Red Belt

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    Who were the many people that thoguht Khabib would be the dog? I don't recall anyone saying that on this thread.
     
  9. NorthernLights

    NorthernLights Blue Belt

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    As a fan, I like both guys and I'll make a small a profit whoever wins the ME (slightly more if Khabib wins) but I'm kinda rooting for Conor just because I want to watch all the haters out there go nuts...
     
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  10. molest

    molest Purple Belt

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    I know im late but i wanna discuss Khabib vs Conor a bit, everyone is in agreement that Conor needs a KO here, however we always hear that and it never really happens, look at our last 2 "superfights" this year Cormier vs Miocic and Miocic vs Ngannou.
    Both times we knew that if the loser of that bout didnt land the KO it was gonna get ugly for them and they both ended up losing.
    My point is for a KO to happen it either needs to be a bit of a mismatch, it has to be a surprise shot or a stylistic advantage. A stylistic advantage being Aldo or Eddie who are mainly brawlers, against nate who is a more rangy boxer the KO wasnt there at all, so my point is if Khabib is patient he should 100% win this fight, because he might get hit with the left but he is gonna see it coming and just wait for whenever Conor inevitable gives him an opening.

    However Mcgregor has that aura about him, if we see Khabib going backwards and Conor landing some of his kicks for more than a minute, then Khabib might get shook and rush, we really down know a lot about both guys mental state which is what makes this fight so intriguing. Is Khabib a hothead when things dont go his way? Is Conor's confidence gonna be shook?
     
  11. edole

    edole Brown Belt

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    I know everyone is busy these days, myself included, but.... @Oblivian and @iGnP you guys have any strong leans???
     
  12. Subli

    Subli Black Belt

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    Over 0.5 at 1xbet means over one round. Their rules state that for MMA and Boxing, they use completed rounds.
     
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  13. Xuh

    Xuh Black Belt

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    Evinger details the knee injury:



    Don't know how it's possible to be back so soon from that TBH. Confidence decrease
     
  14. Invictis

    Invictis Green Belt

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    Where's the fooking Irish money?

    I went to the weigh ins yesterday, and legit 95% of the people there were Conor fans.

    I left thinking, "This is great, they'll go back to their hotels after this and bet on Conor".

    Line hasn't shifted at all.
     
  15. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I'm pretty big on Conor/Khabib ITD in parlays. Laflare is another play that I like with his odds down. Lewis/Volkov ITD too. For dogs, I'm on OSP, Anthony Pettis, Formiga, Evinger, and Lansberg.
     
  16. thesharktank

    thesharktank Purple Belt

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    Very different fight than the one against Conor. Iaquinta is a far superior wrestler who has shown better or more consistent cardio atleast. Iaquinta has supreme KO power as well - 4 legit kos in his previous 5 fights. Khabib without training for him won all 5 rounds. That performance was wayy better than Conors against fight week replacement Nate Diaz. I like the price on Khabib alll the way up to -200.
     
  17. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Khabib itd went from something like -108 (I think) to now +121. This is absolutely playable now. Conor is way mentally tougher and is extremely durable (see his rematch with Nate) than people are giving him credit for. He's not gonna roll over and die if he's taken down and beat up for a round or 2. That said, I just can't see him surviving 25 minutes of it. I take that back: I can see him possibly surviving it, but the % chance he does isn't enough to dissuade me from playing Khabib itd at + odds. I have to put some on this line now.
     
  18. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    Khabib doesn't finish anybody though. I just can't see how you can bet on somebody who has such horrible finishing skills at barely < 50% odds. My #'s give him 16% odds of finishing, which may be slightly low since he probably has better chance of finishing in rounds 4/5 after cumulative damage. But he was never close to finishing Barboza, RDA, Raging Al and I can't why he would have an easy time finishing Conor.

    His only "good" finish was against MJ who is a massive flake and was completely done after round 1. And it still took him until the halfway mark of round 3 to find a way to end the fight. I don't think Conor is as soft as MJ and I just don't see Khabib having the same success.
     
  19. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I think you are only looking at half the equation though. RDA has a top tier defensive guard. Al and Barboza are both much better grapplers than Conor. And Conor has shown mediocre (at best) cardio in the fights where it's mattered. I don't question Conor's toughness or durability, but I question his cardio and ESPECIALLY his ability to offer ANYTHING if the fight goes to the mat. Mendes was landing shots and controlling him easily until he decided to abandon position to go for the guillotine (likely because with the short camp he knew his cardio was crap and he'd better try for the finish when he had a chance). So for example while I think the odds of Khabib finishing someone like Ferguson (who has an endless gas tank and very capable grappling) are very slim, his odds of finishing Conor with cumulative damage are pretty good. Especially (like you said) since he gets 10 more minutes to do it.

    Don't get me wrong, there's definitely a chance that Khabib tires too even if he's the hammer and Conor is the nail and that slows Khabib's output on the mat and he coasts to a decision win. But I think those chances are considerably lower than him just beating Conor down to the point where even if Khabib is tired, Conor is just offering no defense off his back and the ref has no choice but to stop it.
     
  20. zeckdo

    zeckdo Blue Belt

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    any event props stick out to you guys?

    over 2.5 subs seems good at +134. I think Ferg, Pettis, OSP, Luque, Formiga, Yana, and Lentz have decent changes at winning by sub. Martin and Patrick also have a small chance at winning by sub.
     
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