General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - March, 2018

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by kenfloshogun, Feb 28, 2018.

  1. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Jones fought more recently than Gus. Gus has been dealing with many injuries including his back, more consideration should be put into that than the speculation that Jones will look different after being caught by USADA.
     
  2. burge13

    burge13 Blue Belt

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    Brunson could win the fight via wrestling easily if he chose to but he is a certified moron so he'll come forward, chin in the air and get picked off by the superior striker. Dude wrestled Romero (albeit 4 years ago), Izzy hasn't learnt enough to keep up with that. Comes down to how much you trust an idiot to take the path of least resistance. I'll be having 0.5u on Brunson but not expecting much more than frustration when i watch it
     
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  3. zeckdo

    zeckdo Blue Belt

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    Just recapped UFC 229 and all of the newly announced title fights on episode 36 of my podcast, Martian MMA.

    Youtube

    Soundcloud

    iTunes
     
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  4. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    It's more how lackluster Jones looked vs OSP after his USADA layoff.

    Gun to my head I'd pick Jones to win definitely. But no way I'd pay almost -300 (I know you got a much better price so not gonna knock your play).
     
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  5. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I kind of agree, but he does also have one-shot fight ending power too. I don't expect him to win, but I do like his chances enough that +300 is worth it.
     
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  6. burge13

    burge13 Blue Belt

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    I don't get why Jones didn't go to HW now. Why rematch Gus who never fights and he already beat.

    Could have called out Stipe, huge fight for either & with a win get a title shot. Jones for sure skips passed Blaydes with a HW win & a DC defense. Hell I'm pretty sure UFC wanted Jones v Brock but didn't think he'd be back so soon and backed themselves into a corner there. Going back to LHW makes no sense IMO
     
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  7. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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    Huh. Not sure who I want to fade right off the bat.
     
  8. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Just speculation, but my guess is that the UFC offered Jones more $ to stay at LHW (and a quicker contract for a fight). Why? Because at HW they are already going to get a boost (for a fight or 2 anyway) when Brock returns. DC (assuming he beats Lewis) vs Brock will sell a ton of PPV's. Even Lewis (if he were to pull the upset of DC) vs Brock sells. Anything with Brock does. But DC at HW left a void at LHW and its possible that the UFC is just hoping that Jones return breathes some life into that division. Esp if they get a repeat of his last fight with Gus wherr it's great back and forth action.
     
  9. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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    Ponz +160 vs Magny. Great line imo.
     
  10. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    It was a mistake unfortunately.
     
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  11. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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    Yeah. I hit it for 100$ and just got refunded. They're watching me now I bet lol. I bet peanuts anyway. Just leave me alone 5D.
     
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  12. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Ha ha yeah I'd say so. He's -300 now. Magny at +220 might be playable.
     
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  13. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Most of the openers these last few days have been pretty sharp

    But then ponz opened at +160 vs magny

    And I was in the gym and completely missed it

    Edit: read it was a mistake

    I was really considering fading Claudia. Still value on Nina. If the odds go below -190 I’ll probably end up on Claudia

    Disappointed with the shev/jj opener. Thought I could possibly get shev in the mid -100 range

    Might end up on jj at these odds
     
  14. NorthernLights

    NorthernLights Blue Belt

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    Thoughts on line movement for Holloway/Ortega? I bet a ton on Ortega @ 2.30 on bet365 a couple of days ago. Do you think he could end up as the favorite considering concerns around Max's weight cuts and potential health issues?
     
  15. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    I think it's possible that he ends up a fave for a moment, but if Max ends up at +odds think he will get crazy interest and swing back to the favorite. Even with the concerns over his health I still think there's value on Max at -130.
     
  16. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Bader at -170 today was nice

    5dimes opener limits seem to have changed from $100-200
     
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  17. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Orange Belt

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    This the kind of fight I like to stay away from. Too many question marks about Max Holloway, and Holloway and Ortega are close enough in ability that the unknown information is more valuable than the best analysis you can make without it.

    What do you guys think of the Ortiz-Liddell 3 fight? I'm almost certainly going to bet moderately on Ortiz, but was wondering if the line will get even juicier closer to the bout.
     
  18. FightGameTheory

    FightGameTheory White Belt

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    I just can’t inagine any rational person betting on Chuck. I have to think the odds will widen.
     
  19. burge13

    burge13 Blue Belt

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    How is that PPV $50. Chuck and Tito will be lucky to make 1m between them at those prices. Who is going to buy it?!
     
  20. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    definitely possible he goes fav but im not sure he will stay there unless holloway has issues with weight or health. I have a hard time seeing ortega drifting past where he opened, there's just too many red flags with max,and we've already seen ortega shorten a little. there could be relatively little movement up until the fight and then once the weigh in happens the line could shift more considerably either way depending on how max looks. I smashed 2.3 on ortega too, already laid ortega a little at 2.1 on the exchange (effectively betting max @1.9) will likely freeroll the rest if i can get it matched at odds i like and then look to LB as there could be some good opportunities.
     

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