General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - March, 2018

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by kenfloshogun, Feb 28, 2018.

  1. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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  2. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    aldo makes the most sense for a replacement i reckon. good stylistic match up for aldo, or at least as good as he can hope for with all the killers in the top 10.
     
  3. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Nate is the draw and he knows it. He will make $ regardless of opponent. And if he gets wrestlefucked by Lee or Gregor it really doesn't take the shine off a rematch with Conor much at all because everyone has now seen that neither are the best LW in the world and both are clearly behind Khabib and Ferg.

    Nate hasn't fought in awhile. Word is that he's much better with his $ than his brother but it's still a big payday to walk away from. I get that it's really hard to predict what a guy like Nate will do but I lean toward him accepting a replacement. Aldo does make sense, as does Gaethje for pure entertainment value.
     
  4. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    The Izzy love is out of hand. Yes he looked very good vs Tavares and yes I favor him over Brunson. But -360? C'mon.

    I'm taking a stab at Derek here +300. This is exactly the kind of spot i like betting s guy like Brunson. Can be a flake but huge power and might be able to utilize some wrestling.
     
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  5. zeckdo

    zeckdo Blue Belt

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    Brunson will get chewed apart on the feet if he tries to kickbox, if he brawls (which he almost always does) the fight will get interesting. Brunson never uses his wrestling, I give his chances at winning a decision around 5%, 25% chance of a KO though.

    I've been waiting to fade Izzy, passed on Wilkinson, and Vettori, bet on Tavares and was shocked how bad he looked against Izzy. Now I'm accepting the fact that Izzy is really good, he's very smart, the way he racked up experience before the UFC is something very very few fighters have the patience to do. His TDD isn't bad at all, he's so good at managing distance and keeping range, that acts as TDD by itself. He beat Tavares in a small cage (TUF finale) I imagine the large cage plays in his favor even more. I haven't forgot that Wilkinson and Vetorri put Izzy on his back, a smart fighter will do the same in the future, and they will take Adesanya's undefeated record, but Brunson isn't smart enough to execute a wrestling gameplan. Genuine question, When was the last time he wrestled for a win?
     
  6. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    He hasn't in a long time I agree. But I do think he's going to pressure Izzy and try to force a brawl and he very well may level change instinctually.

    I want to be clear: Izzy is good and I favor him. This line just shifted too much. Izzy -200, maybe -225 seems right.
     
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  7. zeckdo

    zeckdo Blue Belt

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    Was always a Rockhold fan, never was too impressed with Weidman, predicted Rockhold beating Weidman the first time, however I'm picking Weidman to win this time. I think Rockhold has gotten worse since they first fought, his (in-cage) confidence is gone. it was gone before he got blasted into the shadow realm and kissed by Yoel, so I can't imagine how Luke will be now. Luke also hasn't used his grappling since their first fight, meanwhile we saw Weidman rely on his strong grappling vs Gastelum when his striking wasn't winning him the fight. The only hope Rockhold has at winning, is if his boxing defense improved from Jason Parillo, and he uses his grappling, which is one of the most underrated pedigrees in all of MMA.
     
  8. zeckdo

    zeckdo Blue Belt

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    I agree with you. -250 at the very highest, there's value on Brunson.
     
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  9. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Last time he wrestled for a win was vs Larkin in 2014. He also took the first 2 rounds off Romero via wrestling, and tried to wrestle a bit vs Silva. The Larkin fight has me considering a play on Brunson at these odds.

    He used it to beat Branch. His other 2 fights were a quick KO loss to Bisping and a fight vs Romero who he had no chance of taking down. Weidman will give him the fight he wants.
     
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  10. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Looks like you guys were right. Nate off the card as well. Lame.
     
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  11. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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  12. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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    Alert. Alert. This is not a drill.
     
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  13. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Nice. Been waiting for it to be official. Took Gus +215. There are enough factors at play (their first fight, how lackluster Jones looked off a long USADA layoff vs OSP, etc) that a small bet on Gus at over 2-1 is warranted here imo.
     
  14. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Brown Belt

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    Couldn't agree more.
     
  15. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Not sure if I am anticipating the line movement correctly, but I just put $200 on Gus over Jones at +235.
     
  16. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Going the opposite way, just put 1k down on Jones -213 at Ohmbet
     
  17. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Total guess on my part but I'm thinking we won't see a ton of movement either way. I'd be shocked if Jones gets too far past -300 but equally as shocked if Gus dips too far below +200.
     
  18. raketmannen

    raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Holloway vs Ortega odds almost at even, wouldn't suprise me at all if Holloway ends up being the underdog after what happened at ufc 226
     
  19. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    How can you be so confident in Jones after such a long layoff, the interruption or uncertainty in his PED regimen with the USADA he is under as well as not knowing whether he has been drinking or drugging?
     
  20. Stunna77

    Stunna77 Purple Belt

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    Shev -300 JJ +250, that line tightens significantly, no?
     

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