Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by piglord, Oct 7, 2018.
Thank you for the DM and write up's piglord! Loved them, great stuff.
In addition to my Johnson ML and Tokov ML action, I stabbed Chael +220 .5u and bet Johnson/Kongo GTD 1.55u -155 as I see that being a grindfest with Johnson being the more active fighter on the feet and in the clinch. Not hating on anyone's Nallo plays, I was very tempted myself given the hype from his gym mates, but you also have to ask yourself if the dude is THAT good why is he 29 and still an unknown when he has been at Tristar for a decade? Banks isn't great but his wrestling is legit and I could see a circle jerk being busted in frustrating fashion if he can't stop the takedowns or sweep.
I think Fedor is a relatively safe bet. Bader vs Mitrione I'm staying away from, way way way too risky of a fight. Bader is the overall better fighter but Matt is a weight class bigger and can 1-hit-KO any man on this planet.
I have thought about Nallo's slow ascent, and my best guess is that he needs a lot of recovery time in between fights. All of them are spaced at least 8 months apart, and he pulled out of the Jake Lindsey fight with an injury. He is on the thin side and may not be that durable to be taking multiple fights per year. This wouldn't be a big deal vs Banks who does not do much damage to his opponents.
Whatever it is I am sure he has some flaws that will prevent him from being a UFC caliber champion, but can't see how he should be an underdog vs Banks.
Mickey Gall is essentially a better version of Banks and I doubt he would talk about a guy that he is a clear fave against like that. And if he wouldn't be a clear underdog vs Mickey, he definitely shouldn't be an underdog vs Banks.
In spite of Banks' wrestling, he got grapplefucked by Adam Piccolotti and has beaten nobody. The guy isn't dangerous.
There's less than 10 minutes of footage on Nallo, and only 18 seconds in the last 4 years. The kid doesn't look special, you all seem to be basing your bet off of his teammates hyping him up, a dangerous proposition
Mickey Gall isn't his teammate, and Firas threw him on a list with 4 other prospects who would now all be heavily juiced faves vs Banks.
Don't think he will be amazing or anything, but he has potential to go pretty far in Bellator. He looks super flexible, has some sexy headkicks and his flexibiilty likely helps him do crazy stuff on the mat. Would say it's more likely that he's equal or better to Adam Piccolotti than it is that he is as bad as Kozola + Roberts.
Seriously imagine Mickey Gall training with a dude like Steve Kozola and saying he's going to go far, it would never happen.
Bader evidently is about 235 now and (according to Chael anyway) still looks shredded. Chael said that while it's probably somewhat accurate to describe him as a "blown up MW or LHW", Bader is a legit HW that happens to be able to make 205.
Matt is usually about 255 I think. There's a size edge, but I think its gonna look negligible when they get in the cage. Matt absolutely has one-shot KO power though, above average even at HW. But damn his grappling is terrible.
good betting intel at 20:00 onwards
Went big (By my standards) on Nallo, $300 spread out on three bets at +150/+145/+145. Some of the dissent here is making me a bit nervous, but as everyone else has already stated Banks really looked like hot garbage in his last bout.
He had next to nothing to offer in that bout and I don't see what he can do differently here against someone who's a more competent / rangier striker with solid submission ability to boot.
The only really appealing prop that I saw was Mitrione/Bader ITD. I have a hard time seeing that one go 3. I haven't made a single play besides that yet.
I wouldn't even go that far. Mickey Gall, as much as I dislike him as a fighter and person, has good BJJ and has been improving his wrestling. Banks is an (at best) okay wrestler who can easily be taken down himself and has horrible jits. He was absolutely dominated by a Piccolotti who had zero stand-up back then. (Yes, Piccolotti improved his stand-up massively in the span of just 5 months and one fight)
may stab chael itd at +600.
Hmm. I'm opposite you there. I think it's close to 50/50 as to whether it goes the distance. If it is a standup fight mainly I agree totally that someone is likely gonna get KO'd. (That said Bader has shown at times the ability to stick and move well like vs Rashad and he'll likely be really wary of Matt's power). But if Bader does what I think he'll do and takes Matt down I can easily see him winning a lopsided decision. Matt will tire out but he doesn't quit or look for a way out. And more importantly Bader seems to care way more about keeping position with his top control than about doing serious damage.
Mitrione's has seen the bell once in his last 12 fights and that was against fatass Nelson who has one finish in his last 8 (against Bigfoot). Mitrione is kill or be killed. Also, I disagree in regards to Bader. Watch what he does on the ground with Vasell. He'll also attack the neck if it's there. I have a very hard time seeing Mitrione last on the ground with him. Honestly, if Mitrione/Nelson wouldn't have gone to decision, I think we'd have seen far more lopsided odds on that. I think this is a gift.
I have been thinking about this. He hasn't KO'd anybody in forever, but his striking looked crisp vs Rampage and Fedor's chin is just sooooo bad these days. Wouldn't be a shock if he rocked him and finished him with ground and pound or a choke.
Dunno how much value there is at +600, but I would personally cap it around +500
Took Larkin Dec +180. Think that's worth a unit, imo.
Maybe I'm giving Matt too much credit in that he'll be at least able to use his size/strength advantage to at least survive on the mat even with the big skill disparity.
If Bader finishes I'll be fine with that. Matt getting the KO is the bad scenario for me.
Dude Piccolotti is legit and a bad matchup for Banks. We have no clue how good or bad Nallo is. Blind stab is fine as long as your cool with the risk, and that is essentially what betting Nallo is. There have been plenty of "beasts" in the gym who don't look it once in the cage.
Missed it, but thought +165 is still wayyyy better than Larkin ML
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