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Bellator 207 & 208

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by piglord, Oct 7, 2018.

  1. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Not to mention Roy's output slowed to nothing after rd 1 vs Mitrione. He clearly lost the first 2 rounds and then had just enough energy to lay on top of an exhausted Matt for the last round.

    Everyone would hammer Roy at -175 I'm sure (I would) but -350 is ridiculous.
     
  2. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    If you would hammer -175, is +270 really likely to be value?

    Sergei has looked washed recently. Roy's chin is probably going to give way at some point, but I doubt it's this fight. I would guess he gets takedowns and lay on top. At this price I would rather bet Sergei than Roy, but -300 may be an accurate EV of the fight.
     
  3. zeckdo

    zeckdo Blue Belt

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    obviously dog or pass, but there's no such thing as a value bet on a 40 year old heavyweight with 50 fights.
     
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  4. FightGameTheory

    FightGameTheory White Belt

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    When the Lay & Get Paid path is this clear, usually the odds are much steeper than -350. Not to mention, Roy is likely to pound him out along the way rather than having to rinse and repeat for a full 3 rounds. Roy has evolved into a pretty solid takedown artist late in his career, and Sergei has shown susceptibility against far less competition. I’m surprised to see most people in the thread on Sergei.
     
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  5. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Yes I think that gap is worth a bet on Sergei. Not a big one at all, but a small stab.
     
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  6. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I think Roy's TD's are okay but he is plenty willing to stand around and wing the occasional overhand right. He's shown it time and again. If I was confident that Roy would implement a wrestling heavy gameplan sure I'd buy into your theory. But Mitrione has awful TDD and Roy was willing to get outboxed by him for long stretches in that fight.
     
  7. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    Think it's because Mitrione is a dynamic striker and it's harder to get takedowns when you gotta walk through power punches.

    Looks like Sergei's power has waned quite a bit and Roy can be more aggressive pursuing takedowns.
     
  8. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Maybe. Or it could be the fact that Roy is old and his cardio has gone to crap and it takes way more energy to wrestle than it does to plod around and wing the occasional punch.
     
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  9. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    Fair point. I am still thinking about betting Sergei bc for all of the hate he gets for aging, Roy is 4 years older and carrying that massive gut can't be helping him cling on to his youth

    This is Sergei's biggest fight in a while. If he looks like he got in shape for it at the weigh ins, he's going to be worth a stab.
     
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  10. Bestonian

    Bestonian Can't be assed with grammar

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    Why is Andy Main a five-to-one underdog? Seems like a great sub artist.
     
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  11. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    Watch his loss to Chang Hyun Kim. It was a terrible opponent, both guys looked like they were throwing punches underwater. And Main looked pretty bad in scrambles, ended up on bottom. He likely lacks the athleticism to get in a position to sub Corrales, and won't be a threat on foot.
     
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  12. Bestonian

    Bestonian Can't be assed with grammar

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    Thanks a lot, need to look that fight up.
     
  13. Bestonian

    Bestonian Can't be assed with grammar

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    It's weird how tape and paper differ so much from either. Internet says Andy is a 3rd degree blackbelt in BJJ and Corrales most losses come to submissions.
     
  14. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I just won a bet on Main over Almeida. His BJJ actually won him the last round in that fight. With that said, Karakhanyan is a bigger sub threat. Noad Lahat is a better all around grappler. Corrales handled both. I think Main is in for a tough night.
     
  15. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Are both of these going to be on Paramount? Bellator's site is so horrible that it's hard to figure out where to even watch it. For both events, it says Paramount and DAZN.
     
  16. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Yes, they both show up in my DVR guide, so I will be watching on tv rather than DAZN.
     
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  17. BluntTrauma21

    BluntTrauma21 Broner Brody / Pulev Posse

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    I took a small stab at Kharitonov, line seems too wide for Roy, no pun intended. Same w/ Awad. Just small fliers out of principle for me.

    Also 1u Johnson over Kongo. Not very confident but Johnson is a solid wrassler who should be able to handle himself in the clinch. Less mileage, 10 years younger, fuck it I took a shot. Not looking to play either of these cards with any significant amount of my money involved. Don't see much value overall, plus it's Bellator.
     
  18. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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  19. Omni1

    Omni1 Blue Belt

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    Save your $. Big Belly is going to take Sergei down then sub him out.
     
  20. Omni1

    Omni1 Blue Belt

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    Both Nallo & Johnson are going to win.
     

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