Bellator 207 & 208

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by piglord, Oct 7, 2018.

  1. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Bader has really good power standing, but on the mat seems WAY more concerned with keeping position than with doing damage.
     
  2. burge13

    burge13 Blue Belt

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    Very true. I wonder what the size difference will be, if any? Lends itself going longer if Bader is giving up some size.

    No props available to me here anyway. I doubt we get any Bellator props in Aus (anyone know?). Don't think we have historically
     
  3. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Matt generally weighs about 250-255 I think. Bader told Luke Thomas last week he was 235. So some size edge but not massive at all.
     
  4. MacPherson911

    MacPherson911 Blue Belt

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    Anybody know anything about the jabroni they’re throwing in there with Baby Slice? Hate paying the juice on a 3-1 hype job but a quick look at his opponent’s record just screams jobber.
     
  5. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Is kharitonov really that cooked that Nelson should be -300?
     
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  6. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Dude is almost -750

    That’s a laugh that people bet him up that high
     
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  7. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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  8. ClipYourDirtyWings

    ClipYourDirtyWings Send lawyers, guns, and money

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    I cashed on Moose but other than him and Fedor over Mir I don’t think I’ve bet a single Bellator fight this year, I never do. But talk me out of Chael as a +225 dog here
     
  9. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Took 1u on Alexander Shlemenko at +120 and Cheick Kongo at -125 to win 1u for Bellator 208 so far.
     
  10. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Fedor completely gassing is the only way I see chael winning. He could end up on top position in a scramble and if he gets on top of chael I think he will finish him
     
  11. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    I’m mad I missed Johnson’s opener at +175 but I’d say -125 on Kongo is very playable

    Did not know Kongo is 43. 10 year age difference there
     
  12. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Perosh took an incredible beating and it should have been stopped multiple times, IIRC.
     
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  13. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    personally i think bader gets it done with ground strikes but i have him in a parlay with inoue by ko from last weekend.
     
  14. chemmy

    chemmy Green Belt

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    There isn’t really that big of a difference between those 2 lines —- you’re looking at 36% vs 44% implied probability for Johnson. I’m still on the fence about a play here, but I find it helps me to put things into percentages sometimes because it can be easy to have your your mind swayed on line movement that likely isn’t as significant as you think it is at first glance.
     
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  15. chemmy

    chemmy Green Belt

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    Yep, I like that line too. Feels much closer to a 50/50 kinda scenario than a +180 to me.
     
  16. chemmy

    chemmy Green Belt

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    I definitely would’ve preferred Johnson as a decent sized dog, but he’s the side I’m considering, even where his current line is. Kongo has mainly been going the wrestling route for a while now and it seems to me like we could get a boring, grindy kinda fight with Johnson being the slightly grittier fighter in rounds 2 & 3.
     
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  17. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    i'm with you, i actually don't mind johnson at pick 'em since i favor him outright.

    i also love bader to win the heavyweight tournament at -100.
     
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  18. chemmy

    chemmy Green Belt

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    Yeah I think there’s probably value at -100. You have to figure he’ll be -300ish against the winner of Sonnen/Fedor, and if you parlay those odds with this Mitrione fight you’d only return .82 cents or so on the dollar.
     
  19. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    mitrione is his toughest test i don't think he loses to fedor or sonnen whatsoever.
     
  20. chemmy

    chemmy Green Belt

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    Outside of an unlikely Fedor bomb, the final should be a fairly easy fight for him if he handles Mitrione this weekend. There really is no foreseeable scenario where Sonnen beats him, if you ask me.
     
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